This paper assesses the potential impacts of the European - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam's imports of automobiles from the EU by adopting the Software on Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (SMART) based on two scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the EVFTA would result in a significant increase in Vietnam's automobile imports from the EU, implying that the EU would be still among the biggest car sources for Vietnam in the upcoming time.
Tác giả: Vũ Thanh Hương, Phạm Minh Tuyết
In trong: Chuyên san Kinh tế và Kinh doanh
Số: Tập 33, Số 2, 2017, tr. 1-13
Ngôn ngữ: Tiếng Anh
Từ khóa: Vietnam, EU, EVFTA, ASEAN+3, automobiles, SMART.
Tóm tắt: This
paper assesses the potential impacts of the European - Vietnam Free Trade
Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam's imports of automobiles from the EU by adopting
the Software on Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (SMART) based on two
scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the EVFTA would result in a significant
increase in Vietnam's automobile imports from the EU, implying that the EU
would be still among the biggest car sources for Vietnam in the upcoming time. However,
when Vietnam also extends its coverage of tariff elimination to ASEAN+3, the
reduction in Vietnam’s automobile imports from the EU would be considerable. Another important finding is that an uneven
distribution in Vietnam’s additional automobile imports from the EU by nation,
automobile group and automobile product would occur when the EVFTA comes into
effect. In both scenarios, trade creation effects are higher than trade
diversion effects and hence, the EVFTA could raise the welfare of Vietnam. Based on these results, the paper ends by drawing out
some implications for the Vietnamese government and domestic enterprises to be
better prepared for the upcoming ambitious EVFTA.
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